Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 0.357255 0.412405 0.472273 0.541967 0.620738 0.706874 0.808061
2025-06-22 0.262350 0.330993 0.411420 0.512153 0.634447 0.777577 0.957209
2025-06-29 0.200084 0.274742 0.368750 0.494770 0.658091 0.861277 1.131679
2025-07-06 0.152742 0.228061 0.329835 0.475506 0.676381 0.940997 1.312766
2025-07-13 0.125656 0.203172 0.315107 0.485369 0.733864 1.078551 1.586801
2025-07-20 0.100661 0.176307 0.292999 0.481403 0.771892 1.195195 1.848546
2025-07-27 0.083501 0.157970 0.280320 0.489271 0.828308 1.345250 2.176989
2025-08-03 0.070042 0.142859 0.270012 0.499125 0.889196 1.509618 2.546934
2025-08-10 0.054760 0.120955 0.244175 0.478874 0.898622 1.595421 2.806214
2025-08-17 0.041904 0.100434 0.216677 0.450739 0.890226 1.650968 3.023208
2025-08-24 0.033768 0.087440 0.200709 0.440812 0.912167 1.759578 3.340328
2025-08-31 0.027278 0.076286 0.186089 0.430792 0.932217 1.866872 3.666661
2025-09-07 0.023502 0.070756 0.182803 0.444497 1.002488 2.077722 4.209156
2025-09-14 0.018296 0.059979 0.165434 0.425134 1.004036 2.161402 4.530037
2025-09-21 0.014642 0.052150 0.153146 0.414709 1.022630 2.280421 4.931685
2025-09-28 0.011604 0.044991 0.140744 0.401527 1.033209 2.384868 5.317098
2025-10-05 0.010056 0.041943 0.138438 0.412622 1.100049 2.612512 5.972090
2025-10-12 0.008354 0.037702 0.131754 0.411237 1.137693 2.782953 6.527932
2025-10-19 0.007210 0.035016 0.128950 0.419700 1.200468 3.015204 7.236962
2025-10-26 0.006270 0.032726 0.126791 0.429593 1.268390 3.266534 8.011505
2025-11-02 0.004952 0.028212 0.116174 0.412879 1.265525 3.356117 8.441183
2025-11-09 0.003783 0.023696 0.104100 0.388986 1.239604 3.388415 8.745690
2025-11-16 0.003074 0.020963 0.097539 0.380850 1.255448 3.522635 9.296358